https://understandingwar.org/research/Geopolitics2026-08-16T14:56:08.554044+00:00variouspython-feedgenhttps://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=understandingwar.org&sz=64https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=understandingwar.org&sz=256Combined think-tank feed: ISW, RUSI, CSIS, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.tag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/aedcffec7c9c0b8cRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 20262026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 20262026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/081b9d2ab0a7fae9Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/97cc8cc97781767aIs a New Chinese Runway Taking Flight at Antelope Reef?2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00China begins construction at Antelope Reef.2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f6003bcd4725aea2Iran Update Special Report, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2e18974e8e6427f4The Cyberattacks on the U.S Water Sector and the Iran Question: Escalation or Opportunism?2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00It is highly likely that Iran is behind the cyberattacks on the U.S. water sector. Psychological effect—not escalation—is the point of Iran’s cyber operations, to sow fear, chaos, and division as part of its information warfare strategy.2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ea6697fec3ba063eChina & Taiwan Update, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00China & Taiwan Update, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e7e36eba131c3792Russian Occupation Update, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00Russian Occupation Update, August 14, 20262026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/eb82ab1deaf57d24Private Sector Cybercrime Disruption: Compatible with Statecraft?2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00As organised cybercriminal attacks escalate and threaten national security and social order, should the private sector get (limited) authorisation to take the gloves off?2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/dae39c3e5ec62ad0Inside the Global Race to Erode China’s Battery Dominance2026-08-13T14:01:45.294000+00:00Over the past decade, China has moved from marginal player to dominant producer of all things batteries. The United States and others are aiming to balance the market.2026-08-13T14:01:45.294000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6f588e51f2dc8b98The Mecca Agreement Unpacked2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00The accord represents a pivotal moment in the region to avert a security vacuum in the Gulf.2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9a2ea6d0ec4ccd12Iran Update Special Report, August 13, 20262026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 13, 20262026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4a848d5361375774Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 20262026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 20262026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/615580c80403ec68More Than Entertainment: Japan’s Creative Industries and the U.S.-Japan Partnership2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00As creative industries increasingly become a strategic pillar of economic competitiveness and geopolitical influence, Japan and the United States can leverage their complementary strengths to expand their global reach, deepen ties, and shape the information environment.2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d7b9c8adeeff6130The Houthis Enter the Iran War and Everything Gets Worse2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00The Houthis’ entry into the Iran war is creating a dangerous new front for Saudi Arabia—potentially forcing it into a military escalation that the United States wants to avoid.2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5d076612236738fbPacTech Pulse: August 20262026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00This edition of PacTech Pulse covers August 2026.2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d73414129915e8ebAfter Iran: A Scenario for Renewed Trump-Kim Summitry2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00The conventional policy wisdom is that President Trump’s enthusiasm for reengagement is not shared by Kim Jong-un. But Victor Cha argues that a unique set of drivers, including North Korean revisionism, could spur a renewal of diplomacy.2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5661074cd287285eParadiplomacy: From Devolved Nation to Foreign Policy Actor2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00Devolved nations and regions can pursue foreign relations with other states, utilising their unique histories, cultures and geopolitics to gain strategic advantage.2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c285ac52638c78d6Age of Optionality: The Future is Not About Replacing the US Dollar2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00The financial system is evolving toward greater choice rather than a new hegemon, requiring policymakers to rethink how economic power, resilience and sanctions will operate.2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c3b7b5536f633a80Why Korea’s President Skipped Washington for Silicon Valley and Brasília2026-08-12T19:36:04.127000+00:00Lee’s tour shows how Seoul is reorganizing its diplomacy away from Pyongyang and toward industrial networks and the geography of the compute economy. 2026-08-12T19:36:04.127000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/36c7a2b6efdb2650Is the Russia-Ukraine War Vibe Shift Real?2026-08-12T13:50:10.915000+00:00Media coverage suggests Kyiv’s fortunes have changed. That shift may be important, but it only goes so far.2026-08-12T13:50:10.915000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9913b3af9d7748e6As Heat Waves Spike, the Global South Needs New Cooling Solutions2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00Investments in a climate-friendly cooling system known as geothermal district cooling will help rapidly urbanizing societies resist dangerous heat indexes.2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1388e0a8a621c591The Kremlin is Cultivating an AI-Trained Global Media Cadre for Lasting Influence2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00The Kremlin is Cultivating an AI-Trained Global Media Cadre for Lasting Influence2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b6698a4871d82258Iran Update Special Report, August 12, 20262026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 12, 20262026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ed54e3313952cf9bRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 20262026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 20262026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/535a36d3cc174738Litigation Review2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00In this week's column, Bill Reinsch outlines the outstanding lawsuits against the Trump administration's tariffs.2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1d920dd8f2302b88Does the Space Commerce Certification Create or Reduce Red Tape?2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00A new space mission certification aims to streamline U.S. regulatory processes and reduce uncertainty for space companies, but it may end up doing the opposite.2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f4e41139f8c714d4Government Lending 2.0: Putting a Price on Policy Risk2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00As federal credit becomes increasingly utilized, federal agencies need a framework to quantify policy risk and create a common language to balance strategic priorities with financial risks.2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5647cd5255ccb9c0States Weekly: August 12, 20262026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00This edition of States Weekly covers August 12, 2026.2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9b58b49581048ac5Democracy Under Stress and the Transformation of the Global Order2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIS Americas Program Senior Associate Evan Ellis examines the growing role of emerging technologies in Latin America and their impacts on democracy and the global order.2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5349d1b236d04781Episode 126: Energy on the Frontline of European Security2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00Energy is no longer the preserve of the business pages and is central to questions of European Security.2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1cc26c635d4ebd5fBuilding CBRN Crisis Ready Supply for Protection and Sustainment2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00The next CBRN crisis will be shaped as much by supply chains, industrial resilience and public trust as by sensors and detection technologies.2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8d096e5cc0453450A Geothermal and Nuclear Strategy for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00The DFC should focus on advanced, low-carbon energy sources, prioritizing areas where the United States has comparative advantages.2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5c89f5f869c63c6cRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/417bfd319e89e50aIran Update Special Report, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5727877db77db3e3China’s Hunger Games2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00CSIS's Caitlin Welsh and Brian Hart analyze China's leveraging of food markets for geopolitical influence for Foreign Affairs.2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/96136f6aa7dc5d9bNew Approaches to Address the Role of Gold in Sudan’s Civil War2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00Revenues from gold are a key driver of the conflict in Sudan. Recent EU sanctions are a start, but much more needs to be done to ensure the gold trade no longer finances bloodshed in the world’s most abandoned humanitarian crisis.2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4103abe78a1d5e43Proving Ground: China’s Strategic Ratcheting of the Philippines and the Indo-Pacific’s Gray Zone Problem2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00China’s maritime gray zone operations in the West Philippine Sea are the “tip of the spear” for China’s pressure campaign against the Philippines. It is essential that policymakers do not lose sight of the rest of the spear.2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/fa9aaaeac9bc5f8eKorean Peninsula Update, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00Korean Peninsula Update, August 11, 20262026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c470ab2ffe1c833fHow ISW Maps Russian Infiltrations in Ukraine: Breaking Down the “Grey Zone”2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00How ISW Maps Russian Infiltrations in Ukraine: Breaking Down the “Grey Zone”2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/717ed3178baf4c0aProject Grayburn and Infantry Body Armour Overmatch2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00As the British Army seeks a successor to the SA80, the pursuit of rifles capable of overmatching infantry body armour may be aiming to solve the wrong problem.2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/81085e9c0df91f5aPutin’s Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00Historic economic and social conditions point to a change of leadership in Russia, but a triggering event is still on the horizon for Putin.2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0979f5165313f33aYears of Fire2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00In an interview, Jason Burke discusses his sweeping account of the “revolutionists” who so shaped the 1970s and early 1980s.2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/71720c6b5eff5b9fConfronting the Barriers to AI Diffusion in the U.S. Military2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00The Pentagon is calling for a rapid AI transformation. Autonomous drones offer a case study in the eight bottlenecks the U.S. military must navigate to realize that vision. 2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b705cf4a02052da8Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 20262026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 20262026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2f14bd9d37f61799Iran Update Special Report, August 10, 20262026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 10, 20262026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c27b2a77b92f5303Section 301 Tariffs and China: A Risky Gambit2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00Scott Kennedy and Claire Reade outline how USTR’s new Section 301 tariffs face legal hurdles, have not achieved their intended economic results, and are making it more difficult for the United States and allies to align in tackling China’s non-market practices.2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/05b53a6167734b93What Happens if Congress Codifies Russia Sanctions?2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 would codify roughly 6,800 designations and create a new tariff authority aimed at the largest buyers of Russian energy. Whether it produces real pressure on Moscow depends on executive branch implementation.2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e4924efc3a1b74b5A Cyber Operations Defence of the ‘Soft’ Sciences2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00The Social and Cognitive Sciences are Essential to Understanding the Escalatory Dynamics of Offensive Cyber2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f78f943de7573c5dEnsuring Offshore Infrastructure Protection Keeps Pace with Growth2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00Offshore energy infrastructure is being built at pace, led by offshore wind and electrical interconnectors, but the security architecture needs to keep up.2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d4a2248e2bc8a78aRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 20262026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 20262026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0a79f94bcef9bd2cIran Update Special Report, August 9, 20262026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 9, 20262026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/af00a111fa07ddfdRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 20262026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 20262026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/24c24bb2071f9bc1Iran Update Special Report August 8, 20262026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report August 8, 20262026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f1895c970676b1acRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f31e395e03cc0aceIran Update Special Report, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b0518ab6c80ed95dBrussels vs. Brussels: The EU’s Data Act and the DMA’s Clash Over Cloud2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00The European Union preliminarily designated AWS and Azure as gatekeepers under the Digital Markets Act. Both already fall under the Data Act, and the overlapping rules risk undermining Europe's cloud sector while deepening its reliance on U.S. providers.2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b1af9db001463f21China & Taiwan Update, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00China & Taiwan Update, August 7, 20262026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/efdebed436747d04RUSI Reflects: Strategic Responses to Organised Crime in the 21st Century2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00Following the release of a RUSI Journal special issue, three experts share their perception of how organised crime is evolving.2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8f8bfef36b6d59eaRUSI Reflects: Srategic Responses to Organised Crime in the 21st Century2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00Following the release of a RUSI Journal special issue, three experts share their perception of how organised crime is evolving in the 21st century.2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5d69d447228d1143The Migration Wave That Embarrassed Morocco and Rattled Europe2026-08-06T15:25:33.860000+00:00Most migrants may have left Ceuta, but the effects may linger.2026-08-06T15:25:33.860000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/73e829f62ef3e461Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/532d751b308239d1How Populist Middle Powers Are—and Are Not—Reshaping Global Politics2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00There is a transnational far-right populist movement that links middle powers in a global movement that extends well beyond Trump.2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/59c87a1045b851eaThe End of “As-Is”: Could AI Undermine Software’s U.S. Legal Shield?2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00AI has fundamentally shattered the economic justifications that courts used to excuse software vendors from product liability. Because low-cost AI agents can now identify critical vulnerabilities at scale, continuing to allow commercial vendors to hide behind boilerplate “as-is” legal disclaimers is bad public policy, and policymakers must act to realign legal expectations with technological reality.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ea37bcbb546b3a40Old Friends, New Calculations: A Reset in China-North Korea Relations2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00China’s shift toward deeper ties with North Korea, including within military affairs, brings important implications worth exploring.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/48cca9b55fa92c42Beyond Tracing: Anticipatory Technical Exploitation and Smart Friction2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Tracing how adversaries acquired yesterday’s technology should be the beginning, not the end, of technical exploitation. Anticipatory analysis can reveal likely substitutions and help policymakers shape adaptation through targeted smart friction.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/3cb14dab6a91637dBridging the Gap: LEO Satellite Internet and Human Rights2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Low Earth orbit satellite internet holds tremendous promise for keeping government functioning and civil society connected in the direst of circumstances, but it must be harnessed for the public good and evade continued authoritarian efforts to fully shut off the internet.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/08ffc4f7886ddb6bRussian Occupation Update, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Russian Occupation Update, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/3dfc3ef5f8d12d5bIran Update Special Report, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d86349d3893ae2c5Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 20262026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/a69748d9955e05a9The Localization Prescription2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00This installment of Charting the Middle East examines efforts to reduce reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, as the Iran war heightens the risk for certain medicine shortages.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/acb2bdeb421ba3dfHow Tehran’s Use of Cyber Operations in the U.S.-Iran Conflict Has Evolved2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00Iran’s cyber apparatus has firmly regeared in direct support and alignment with Iran’s war effort against the United States, Israel, and regional rivals, and is using cyber operations to shape the operating environment in a way that is favorable to its interests.2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e1c237bc4ad86c49Lebanon’s Tutelage Trap2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00Why cannot Syria inherit Lebanon?2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/083e0033fb16d5bbBridging Crewed and Uncrewed: Building a Hybrid Air Force2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00The UK has now joined a small number of nations that have stated and placed budgets behind a Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) concept.2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/67308615b25a9121Instrumentalised Migration and Russia’s ‘Disposable Agents’2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00Instrumentalised migration and Russia’s recruitment of disposable agents exploit the same European weakness: treating deniable acts of coercion as isolated rather than as elements of a wider campaign.2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0a16969d9f69cc1dThe Resource Politics of Cold Peace: Israel’s Relations with Jordan, Egypt2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00As Israel’s relationships with Jordan and Egypt strain, water and energy shift from instruments of regional integration into tools of strategic competition, reshaping the Middle East’s cold peace.2026-08-05T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4e7628e57918d88cFive Years After His Power Grab, Tunisia’s President Has Only Achieved Failure2026-08-05T14:11:59.610000+00:00Saied’s main accomplishment has been to destroy a decade’s worth of democratic progress.2026-08-05T14:11:59.610000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9bd1bffc6f8d4554Mission over Model: What Might AI Mean for an Organization Like Carnegie?2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00Five intuitions about how AI could change our work.2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c19178ac4c4d6986Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 20262026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 20262026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/db84b182bf2e83fbThe People Are Restless2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00In this week's column, Bill Reinsch argues that there is growing congressional and labor opposition to the Trump administration's use of tariffs.2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6685a1c77f7ee62dRethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00Water has emerged as a frontline security challenge. As scarcity, mismanagement, climate change, and conflict converge, water is being weaponized for geopolitical objectives worldwide. What can policymakers do to protect critical water infrastructure and mitigate risks?2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1fb1b8988b996d25States Weekly: August 5, 20262026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00This edition of States Weekly covers August 5, 2026.2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/a64808285050ae6cThe Limits of Control2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00This edition of the Economic Security and Technology Newsletter covers The Limits of Control.2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/37f74114172a0888The Costs of Weaponizing the U.S. IP System2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00Proposals to restrict Chinese participation in the U.S. patent system may impose costs on Beijing—but could they also undermine America's own innovation advantage? This commentary examines the direct, indirect, and systemic consequences of weaponizing the U.S. IP system.2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/54e955a414bd576bUniting Nationalism and Threat Perception for Total Defence2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00Following an increase in whole-of-society attacks, the UK government should deploy tools to encourage nationalism and total defence across society.2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2e452706c1f5d41bBurnham’s Opportunity to Rethink Information Resilience2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00Repositioning DCMS as the lead for ‘information resilience’ online and offline provides coherence to a currently disparate portfolio, offering a rare opportunity to rethink how the government protects the UK from information threats.2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/3d127a03a09e74a3August 4 and Criminal Impunity2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00Lying at the heart of Lebanon’s dysfunction is an inability to secure accountability and institutional legitimacy.2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/babfe40bd19fb33aRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8f8a568e444777b4Iran Update Special Report, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bed8d77ce278449fKorean Peninsula Update, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00Korean Peninsula Update, August 4, 20262026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9f1ede7052d76f33The Visibility Gap: The Case for a North American Trusted Trade Laboratory2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00Supply chain visibility is the best defense against Chinese overcapacity and transshipment. The USMCA Review can act as a coordinating mechanism for North American trade to leverage AI and large-scale data analytics to make supply chains transparent for the first time.2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bb1bfc0b0c2abb38Swarming Software’s Defence Industrial Implications2026-08-03T23:00:00+00:00Open software architecture for autonomous systems will not only support interoperability but also increase industrial resilience and encourage innovation.2026-08-03T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ba789f6791b2b32aThe Drone Attack on Egypt and the Widening Middle East War2026-08-03T19:31:00.402000+00:00The targeting of Damietta Port appears to be more than a mere security message.2026-08-03T19:31:00.402000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/757e430bc3b46c64Whither the Lebanon-Syria Relationship?2026-08-03T12:00:00+00:00In an interview, Sohaib Jawhar analyzes the profound changes in the ties between the neighboring countries.2026-08-03T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/90ff8bbd3b11865eRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 20262026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 20262026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2d705995c6ec017dIran Update Special Report, August 3, 20262026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 3, 20262026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6955813d4d2286cfTokenpolitik: How the United States Can Compete with China to Build the Global AI Stack2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00Tokens are the currency of a new international order. As China races to build the global AI stack, the United States needs "tokenpolitik," a grand strategy bridging agencies and private firms to export the U.S. AI stack worldwide and outcompete China’s Digital Silk Road.2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/20f9c4631c776f05The Role of Regional Networks in Twenty-First-Century Industrial Policy2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00America's next era of technological leadership will be won in its regions. Connecting research, manufacturing, and commercialization through regional innovation ecosystems can help turn scientific breakthroughs into economic and strategic advantage.2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c5f38d29f18228c1Can the Defence Universities Alliance Deliver Without Compromise?2026-08-02T23:00:00+00:00The Defence Universities Alliance must enhance, rather than compromise, the core principles that make universities distinctive: intellectual independence, openness and critical inquiry.2026-08-02T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/60530842d088563aRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 20262026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 20262026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f0cecc5bc3aacb62Iran Update Special Report, August 2, 20262026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 2, 20262026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d5fd47a361825b63Iran Update Special Report, August 1, 20262026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 1, 20262026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f8fda428a90b7eebRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 20262026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 20262026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b22efeae4b519c0f"I Don’t Think Trump Wants to Pull America Out of NATO"2026-07-31T15:04:36.154000+00:00Does Donald Trump want to redraw the map of the world? Historian and geopolitical thinker Stephen Wertheim tries to parse the logic behind current American foreign policy2026-07-31T15:04:36.154000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2911c1893396672fBuild, Not Buy: The Semiconductor Lesson that Indian AI Experts Must Learn2026-07-31T11:30:00+00:00As AI grows more sophisticated, as the supply chains that power it become more contested, and as access to frontier models becomes geopolitically charged, India must begin to ask a different set of questions. Not what applications it can build on someone else’s infrastructure but what the world needs.2026-07-31T11:30:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/37d3fc5144d912deChina & Taiwan Update, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00China & Taiwan Update, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/28ca3e637f466496Iran Update Special Report, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b02d2dad701a701fRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 20262026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5547fb4dc8bb1d05Six Reasons Why the United States Is Low on Munitions2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00The Iran war has exacerbated the Pentagon’s shortage of key munitions, but it is not the only cause. There are also longstanding strategic, operational, and institutional reasons.2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4dd4446cc7d1b668A Global Forced Labor Import Regime Is Emerging—Can It Work?2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00USTR announced sweeping tariffs across 60 economies to address unfair trade practices related to the importation of forced labor-made goods. This presents significant opportunities for promoting workers' rights as well as potentially dire risks to those same rights.2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/74ed1f59fe312d24The United States’ Accelerating Memory Chip Crunch: Implications for Tech and AI Leadership2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00The rapid expansion of AI data centers is creating adverse effects across the memory chip ecosystem. As memory suppliers shift toward high-bandwidth memory, shortages of conventional RAM are raising costs for consumer electronics and fueling calls for government action.2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1f5d53061d9c78cfBeyond the Rome Talks: Pilot Zones, Hezbollah, and Rebuilding State Authority in South Lebanon2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00The second round of Lebanon-Israel talks in Rome must build on progress towards Israeli withdrawals and Hezbollah disarmament—and represent a test of whether Lebanon can reclaim sovereignty in its own territory.2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e55b397fd3fda92aCredibility is the UK's Crypto Advantage2026-07-30T23:00:00+00:00The UK’s new crypto regime is a major milestone. But competitive advantage will come from building credibility, not merely regulating today’s visible crypto market.2026-07-30T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/799835b7389ad9d5Are Data Centers the Solution to China’s Renewables Excess Capacity?2026-07-30T17:27:24.903000+00:00China’s latest energy plan explicitly calls for integrating data centers into the electricity system, particularly connecting them to green energy. It appears Beijing wants to use compute as a source of domestic demand to absorb renewables excess capacity.2026-07-30T17:27:24.903000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d934e56e263d0374Generative AI and Atrocity Denial in War2026-07-30T17:13:14.918000+00:00In the fog of modern war, generative AI offers every side a simple transaction: Trade documented reality for permanent doubt.2026-07-30T17:13:14.918000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/36d7c96de93edda5The Channels of China’s Currency Promotion in Gulf Markets2026-07-30T15:16:53.426000+00:00Is the Gulf moving beyond the dollar? This article examines how China is expanding the renminbi's role across Gulf markets, what that means for regional finance, and why the future of global currencies is more complex than the de-dollarization debate suggests.2026-07-30T15:16:53.426000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/970e53aedce02af5The Realignment of Tech Supply Chains: Lessons from U.S. Trade Sanctions Against Huawei2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Since 2019, the U.S. government has deployed a creative set of tariffs, export controls, investment bans, and strategic sanctions aimed at blocking Huawei’s access to advanced U.S. technologies and curbing its international expansion. Yet Huawei has rebounded.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bc7658b965229b9fWestern Finance and the Rise of Chinese Tech Power2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00How China’s rise as a global tech superpower has been deeply shaped by Western financial networks.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2196d485992c699dRewriting the Rules: Critical Minerals and the Politics of Global Trade2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Surging demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements, and copper has propelled critical mineral policies to the forefront of national and international agendas as enablers of the global energy transition.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/13eae004e7bebd0aThe Rising Trend of Screening Foreign Investments and the Further Fragmentation of the Global Economy2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Areas of the world that have traditionally championed economic liberalization are increasingly adopting protectionist measures that are often premised on safeguarding national security or ensuring the adopting economy’s technological dominance.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b2846e72049f064cUnlocking India’s Urban Dividend2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00As India undergoes a demographic transition, its cities will be its economic powerhouse—but only if it accurately captures city growth and empowers cities to support their citizens.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2a7eda2d4f5b17b4The Board of Peace Plan for Gaza2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00The Trump-led board has laid out blueprints for “voluntary emigration” and land confiscation.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/97daa62739a5bddfLetter from the Editor: Europe Takes Two Steps Forward But One Step Back2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00As we close out another season of Strategic Europe, it is worth taking stock of the deep shifts underway.2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/06924c1101eff2cfIran Update Special Report, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9b30b5a08ed26810Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/14898c241f159671The Kyndryl-Solvinity Case: A Barometer for Investment Security Reviews?2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00A blocked U.S.-Dutch cloud deal in the Netherlands signals a widening transatlantic rift: As Europe races toward tech sovereignty, U.S. firms face mounting scrutiny over data access, the CLOUD Act, and control of critical digital infrastructure.2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8ea6c1c9275134d6A Far-Right Breakthrough? Germany’s AfD on the Brink of State-Level Governance2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00Polls show the far-right AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt this September — a first for postwar Germany. What would AfD rule mean for the state, the federal firewall, and Europe’s fight against far-right normalization?2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/fba15f2c56bb48fbThe Kyndril-Solvinity Case: A Barometer for Investment Security Reviews?2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00A blocked U.S.-Dutch cloud deal in the Netherlands signals a widening transatlantic rift: As Europe races toward tech sovereignty, U.S. firms face mounting scrutiny over data access, the CLOUD Act, and control of critical digital infrastructure.2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b7c5603ffd6eb8abAutonomy and Affordable Mass in Latin America and the Caribbean2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00Renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere presents the United States new ways to advance key technical and tactical innovations in the defense space.2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/036b3a7571af0341Russian Occupation Update, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00Russian Occupation Update, July 30, 20262026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/196381d8ac655a3fKeynote Recordings: The Changing Face of Organised Crime2026-07-29T23:00:00+00:00View the opening remarks and closing keynote of the launch event for the RUSI Journal special issue on how technological and geopolitical change are reshaping organised crime2026-07-29T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e6a95d704c687304The Maritime Leg of China’s Naval Deterrent is Coming of Age2026-07-29T23:00:00+00:00China’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile on 6 July reveals that its drive to truly assure second-strike capability is maturing.2026-07-29T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/244816a3338e408cImagining Ukraine’s Political System After the War2026-07-29T14:03:24.985000+00:00Even if the terms of a ceasefire or peace settlement are satisfactory to most Ukrainians, the country’s democracy will face its fair share of challenges.2026-07-29T14:03:24.985000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/879eef371257df5bRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 20262026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 20262026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1b6f2ed283d8262aIran Update Special Report, July 29, 20262026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 29, 20262026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/43d1ea2e291afab3Taiwan Needs an AI Cyber Shield Now to Defend Against Invasion2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00China attempts over 2.6 million cyber intrusions daily into Taiwan’s networks. Taiwan should adopt the United Kingdom’s newest AI cyber shield concept, developing its own nationally integrated AI cybersecurity system to disrupt China’s reunification efforts.2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/28776cf3a39eb6cfHezbollah’s Pivot to FPV Drones Requires Israeli Overmatch2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00Hezbollah’s Pivot to FPV Drones Requires Israeli Overmatch2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/22bceb8036386323States Weekly: July 29, 20262026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00This edition of States Weekly covers July 29, 2026.2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e964df779a5527c3Tariff Follies Scene 472026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00In this week's column, Bill Reinsch provides an assessment of the Trump administration's trade policy: its objectives, implementation, and evolution.2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b8302bbc4f493da9What the CMMC Pause Means for the Defense Industrial Base2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00The Pentagon has paused its contractor cybersecurity certification program amid concerns from small businesses. What does the decision mean, and how can the department strengthen supply chain cybersecurity without imposing unsustainable burdens on smaller contractors?2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/46b821b6a29741c4Recording: The Atlantic Brief: The Strait of Hormuz and the Future of Free Navigation2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00The first joint webinar by RUSI and War on the Rocks. Two leading defence publications from both sides of the Atlantic present their expert panel.2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1ccda44e4348cd23Rosatom is a Military Supplier – Europe Must Treat It as Such2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00Despite its involvement in Russia’s nuclear and conventional weapons production, Rosatom continues to maintain access to European markets.2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/835b072a2c1523fbEpisode 125: Japan’s Intelligence Reforms2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00Japan’s significant intelligence reforms reveal how the country’s approach to security is becoming more self-reliant and autonomous. But what is being proposed, and why now?2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6334c6c7cdb94901Allies Should Unite on Defence Finance2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00NATO Allies should come together to form a defence financing instrument that supplements national defence spending, improves companies’ access to affordable capital, and incentivises joint procurement.2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0793f866fa057ce4In the War with Iran, Targeting Energy Infrastructure Has Outsized Impact on Civilians2026-07-28T17:27:09.115000+00:00Acknowledging these harms strengthens the case for ethical limits on the weaponization of critical infrastructure.2026-07-28T17:27:09.115000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0c7e0d4f8d107f15Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?2026-07-28T12:00:00+00:00The EU had to compromise to adopt a twenty-first sanctions package against Russia, exposing growing cracks in the union’s resolve. Is this latest, weaker round worth it to keep pressure on Moscow?2026-07-28T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/712730de24e1a23aRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/a6fbf25404f3d58cIran Update Special Report, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1f1df9d82a19e48fRed Kraken: The Coming Age of Agentic Cyber Strategy2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00In a tabletop exercise, members of Congress faced Red Kraken, an AI agent trained to emulate Beijing. Benjamin Jensen and Emily Harding examine how China could target ports and logistics to delay U.S. mobilization and argue for AI-enabled gaming to strengthen cyber defenses.2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5acb754d84f67730Japan’s Defense Industry Charts an Uncertain Global Path2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00With the Mogami frigate sale to Australia and the end of decades-old restrictions, Tokyo's manufacturers are entering the world market as both partner and rival to allied producers —a tension Washington and its friends must now learn to manage.2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c2609152fa3c8ce1Is U.S. Haiti Policy an Opportunity for Success?2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00Amid the costly on-and-off conflict with Iran, U.S. foreign policymakers would do well to refocus attention on the Caribbean. Haiti might offer the best opportunity for positive change.2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b101358b3fdb0facKorean Peninsula Update, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00Korean Peninsula Update, July 28, 20262026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f76e119791857b18Assessing China’s Language on its Stance on Ukraine and Belarus2026-07-27T23:00:00+00:00The country’s different use of ‘territorial-integrity’ is more than a simple diplomatic gesture, but rather a useful sign of its alignment.2026-07-27T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b2276470268b8841Four Years On: An Update on the Air War Over Ukraine2026-07-27T23:00:00+00:00An established Ukrainian F-16 Fighter Wing and the overstretch of fighters and air defences on both sides by sustained long-range strike campaigns have changed the nature of the air war.2026-07-27T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/03fdafc530f2b74bAffordability Is the Top Issue on California’s November Ballot2026-07-27T19:53:38.589000+00:00Direct democracy is the political wildcard in the state’s midterm election.2026-07-27T19:53:38.589000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2f50a9c0d8839d46Will the U.S.-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement Endanger U.S. Interests in the DRC?2026-07-27T14:33:59.553000+00:00President Tshisekedi is implicating Washington in his pursuit of a third term. Staying silent may prove detrimental to the United States in the long run.2026-07-27T14:33:59.553000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4d8b7717e2aea56dAssessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid Threats2026-07-27T12:00:00+00:00The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.2026-07-27T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/7d606de7b28ec130Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads2026-07-27T12:00:00+00:00Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart. 2026-07-27T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/5bbbbd81b0e17f1cIran Update Special Report, July 27, 20262026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 27, 20262026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/25543a62d5b76668Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 20262026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 27, 20262026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d71ea41bcd04265fHuman Rights Initiative Director's Note: February 2026 Edition2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00The February 2026 edition of the Human Rights Initiative Director's Note where Andrew Friedman shares his reflections on human rights and democracy issues occupying significant space in his mind, highlights key HRI ongoings, and spotlights notable articles and videos he's come across.2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bb642c59b764bc53Come Hague or High Seas: China’s Environmental Legacy in the South China Sea2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00As China positions itself as a leader of global ocean governance, the findings from the 2016 South China Sea tribunal ruling take on a renewed significance.2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f274f04e757bd181Burnham’s Makerfield Test: Home Gains or Global Risks?2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00Burnham’s Makerfield Test will reshape UK foreign policy. But will it deliver real benefits at home, or risk isolationism and strained alliances abroad?2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0bc162c8aa689e6aRecce-Strike Provides a Generational Opportunity to Refocus Air Power2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00Air forces should be advocates of land recce-strike, which can hold the close fight with organic support, freeing air capabilities for the missions that justify them.2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/170ca7a78a8442b7Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 20262026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 20262026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e5f2672b231cff7eIran Update Special Report, July 26, 20262026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 26, 20262026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8cbcd24462baa8e9Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 20262026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 20262026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/76254914d6bf927eIran Update Special Report, July 25, 20262026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 25, 20262026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/31487de523370666Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?2026-07-24T12:00:00+00:00Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.2026-07-24T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/319bf178b339e2f4Iran Update Special Report, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d16d7f2a13ef7d55Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/00e55b63aa8e82b5Why the United States and Iran Keep Fighting While They Negotiate2026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00What looks like escalation may actually be bargaining. Understanding that changes how we should read the U.S.-Iran conflict.2026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/10b2015c5b163cecChina & Taiwan Update, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00China & Taiwan Update, July 24, 20262026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/30b0ae50a601bc90Whose Job is it to Protect the International Financial System?2026-07-23T23:00:00+00:00International financial centres have lessons to pass on about the role of professional services in combatting illicit finance and kleptocracy.2026-07-23T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d54c3ccfe9cf5331Episode 24: Can the Financial Action Taskforce Turn Standards into Results?2026-07-23T23:00:00+00:00How can the global anti-financial-crime system become more inclusive, proportionate and effective in delivering meaningful results?2026-07-23T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/70c026d3e8bd1185What We Know About the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal2026-07-23T20:12:20.693000+00:00Despite the agreement’s uncertainty, it’s still a significant development in regional and nuclear policy.2026-07-23T20:12:20.693000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4aa365796d5e55c5Burnham Has a Narrow Window to Shape UK AI Policy2026-07-23T18:16:57.955000+00:00His challenge will come in balancing domestic priorities with a sharpening geopolitical environment.2026-07-23T18:16:57.955000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/0071e0c8e963fc6aA Path Forward on AI Safety for the United States and China2026-07-23T14:42:03.651000+00:00“AI safety in parallel” is modest and pragmatic but vital.2026-07-23T14:42:03.651000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/09de096388ac2b37Negotiating an Age of Conquest: Converting American Power Into Durable Political Outcomes2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00There is a deeply rooted assumption in post–Cold War American statecraft that overwhelming military and economic power translates directly into favorable political outcomes. But force alone is rarely enough. To meet the challenges of the mid-21st century, Washington needs a cultural shift toward a mindset that takes negotiation far more seriously.2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d8a6ded575ea7e23The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/30aaf6644b532072A Competitive Analysis of the Biomanufacturing Strategic Landscape and Technology Stack2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Biomanufacturing—the ability to deploy biotechnology for manufacturing—is rapidly emerging as a global economic and national security priority.2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9d09566e6f027908Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/369d1ec6ba8061bdIndia’s Stake in the Global Subsea Cable Race2026-07-23T11:30:00+00:00The Indian Ocean Region hosts one of the densest concentrations of subsea cables in the world. Yet, despite accounting for a significant share of global internet traffic, India’s participation in the ownership, routing, and maintenance of this network remains limited.2026-07-23T11:30:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6bfeab2413ca537dDetour Dividends: How Syrian Airspace Benefits from the Iran War2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights the unlikely positive implications of flight disruptions for Syria in wake of the Iran war.2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/946a23ffb4919e39How the U.S. Can Survive a Large-Scale AI Cyberattack2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00Advances in offensive AI cyber capabilities are threatening U.S. cybersecurity. The U.S. must improve its whole-of-society cyber readiness through enhancing its partnerships and communication before a major AI cyber-attack occurs.2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/7c387bb4d56e765aWill the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Proceed?2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00President Trump's last-minute link between the U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreement and Israel normalization injects new uncertainty into an already contentious deal.2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f0ab8aca46edc7fdIran Update Special Report, July 23, 20262026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 23, 20262026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2eb8956bef590013Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 20262026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 20262026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/383c08cafb154bb4Losing Control of the West’s Longstanding Interests in Seychelles2026-07-22T23:00:00+00:00A democratic and well-functioning international financial centre that has benefited from Western support, Seychelles seems to now be choosing its friends elsewhere.2026-07-22T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/df6ce742a5ca81e1North Africa’s Flaring Problem is Europe’s Gas Opportunity2026-07-22T23:00:00+00:00The fallout from the Iran War has not been kind to European economies. A UK leadership change presents an opportunity to invest in combatting gas flaring in North Africa, so as to bolster security of supply, and tie ongoing international diplomatic efforts on Libya to that agenda.2026-07-22T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2f56b2d1ad342018Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?2026-07-22T12:00:00+00:00Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.2026-07-22T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/cf1c37b6574b1bf2States Weekly Newsletter: July 22, 20262026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00This edition of States Weekly covers July 22, 2026.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d5cbf5715228b543Charting a New Course: Countering China's Dominance in Global Shipbuilding2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00China has developed the largest shipbuilding industry in recent history and now uses it as an instrument of national power. It is key to Beijing's ambitions to displace the United States as the preeminent power in the Asia-Pacific and project power far from China’s shores.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/eed8fa43205454d1Section 232 Explained2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00In this week's column, Bill Reinsch explains how Section 232 national security investigations have become popular trade tool of the Trump administration, arguing that while some tariffs are difficult to justify, recent decisions suggest a more selective approach to their use.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d2389fa0d684c445Tracking Global Compulsory Licensing Trends in Biopharmaceuticals2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00From HIV/AIDS to Covid-19, global health emergencies have revived calls for compulsory licensing. But history shows that innovation, technology transfer, and manufacturing capacity—not patent waivers alone—drive access to lifesaving medicines.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d62cea99308ed40dWhat Do the Election Security Documents Say About Chinese Interference in U.S. Elections?2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00The biggest takeaway from the declassified intelligence isn't a cover-up—it's how intelligence analysis actually works. Healthy disagreement, documented dissent, and rigorous debate are signs of a strong intelligence community, not a broken one.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ef87ef5c09f39c89AI Strategies and the Informal Economy: Africa’s Job Creation Test2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00African nations have implemented AI strategies that focus on their formal sectors, leaving the informal economy behind.2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00CSIStag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f40a353453735771Iran Update Special Report, July 22, 20262026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 22, 20262026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/45eedb636bd2dc5eRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 20262026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 20262026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f4a19c41172a1a72Russia’s Selective Adaptation: Command, Control and the Limits of Learning in War2026-07-21T23:00:00+00:00The contrast between Russia’s tactical flexibility and operational rigidity is revealing of the insecurity in its executive function.2026-07-21T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/a250e5d52f99e471Japan's Ambivalent Policy Towards Russia and Ukraine2026-07-21T23:00:00+00:00Prime Minister Takaichi’s equivocal stance on policy towards Russia has encouraged a revival in activity from those in Japan who seek reengagement with Moscow.2026-07-21T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/de5e007f8615208eIs AI as Bad for the Environment as Everyone Thinks?2026-07-21T15:00:10.522000+00:00That statistic about a bottle of water may not live up to scrutiny.2026-07-21T15:00:10.522000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/dd5c99a65ae6296dBuilding Mini-Refineries Will Not Solve Russia’s Gasoline Crisis2026-07-21T12:00:00+00:00Official discussions about mini oil refineries are unlikely to come to anything—but the mere fact they’re happening reveals the regime is failing to deliver a functioning economy. 2026-07-21T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/21f9cd0ce6847e63Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against Europe2026-07-21T12:00:00+00:00Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.2026-07-21T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f15fa0b3efc71044Korean Peninsula Update, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00Korean Peninsula Update, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e4e8459886ca38c9Iran Update Special Report, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/2fd0ab9c687effeeRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 20262026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c481297fd1c0d19cThe Dismissal of Ukraine's Defence Minister2026-07-20T23:00:00+00:00Fedorov's removal leaves critical issues unresolved between the Defence Ministry and General Staff.2026-07-20T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6aedbb183b4816f0In the Trump Gaza Plan, Diplomatic Failure is Success2026-07-20T11:53:32.342000+00:00By failing to address Palestinian representation, the current process is bound to lead to just another temporary arrangement.2026-07-20T11:53:32.342000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f0649d81a465b51eRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 20262026-07-20T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 20262026-07-20T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/cca0f497f87ea5f0Iran Update Special Report, July 20, 20262026-07-20T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 20, 20262026-07-20T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/325a7481cd1acab9Prince Philip Lecture 2026: On Science and National Security2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00This year's lecture explores the significance of national security and defence skills, and the role of universities in educating the next generation of engineers and scientists.2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4d4244ae282f611eAndy Burnham’s International Debut: Key Challenges and Opportunities2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces a challenging international context, with intractable problems, but also opportunities to lead and exert UK influence on world events.2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4f1a5cf426e5fbe8Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 20262026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 20262026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/073bf44587302ed7Iran Update Special Report, July 19, 20262026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 19, 20262026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1db09c592600501dIran Update Special Report, July 18, 20262026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 18, 20262026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/918f24f38c3cc787Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 20262026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 20262026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8057b14df701b246Iran Update Special Report, August 5, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, August 5, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b8298624f4302771China & Taiwan Update, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00China & Taiwan Update, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bc09f2f6725bf146Iran Update Special Report, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f161ff226028e71eRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 20262026-07-17T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/564c723ea0372045RUSI Reflects: Andy Burnham's Geopolitical Priorities as New UK Prime Minister2026-07-16T23:00:00+00:00With Andy Burnham set to become the next UK prime minister, RUSI's new director of international security evaluates the new leader's most pressing geopolitical priorities.2026-07-16T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/739bd52749fc8371Putin's Fuel Dilemma2026-07-16T23:00:00+00:00Ukraine's deep-strike campaign is putting pressure on Russia's energy infrastructure and forcing increasing political pain for Putin.2026-07-16T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b75de0401d2cb212Carnegie’s Summer Beach Reads2026-07-16T16:16:10.473000+00:00Carnegie experts recommend the books that kept them turning pages—and learning along the way.
2026-07-16T16:16:10.473000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/945bb551c524d8e5Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?2026-07-16T12:00:00+00:00Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?2026-07-16T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/180aba828a074898Iran Update Special Report, July 16, 20262026-07-16T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 16, 20262026-07-16T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b89b714b36e1e5cfRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 20262026-07-16T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 20262026-07-16T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d0a34504a6fdd42dThe Algorithmic Deterrent2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00Palantir’s manifesto and the sovereignty question for states without algorithmic independence.2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1b7f3aebc5bdc3a4The UK's Defence Investment Plan Has a Lethal Drone Swarm Vision2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00Drone swarming is often referenced as an important future capability, with little understanding of what is possible today, and how the tactic is enabled.2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f9abc9a388d2ea2eWhat’s Driving the Trump Administration’s Push to Dismantle the ICC?2026-07-15T20:39:28.495000+00:00The move is an escalation of its war on multilateralism.2026-07-15T20:39:28.495000+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f73db5ffb292c06fEurope from Scratch: Visions for a New European Order2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00Several leaders have called for major EU reforms, but only modest changes have resulted. What if the European order really could be reimagined from zero today?2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d64755863cf557d2What Should We Take From Andrey Melnichenko’s Essay in the Economist?2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00Andrey Melnichenko’s essay offers no answer to the fundamental question of how, under any kind of negotiated settlement, Europe can protect itself from the Russian ressentiment that is inevitable in all scenarios except for an outright victory for Putin.2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/adfcd41b266bcb5fAI in Outer Space: Opportunities, Risks, & Governance Gap2026-07-15T11:30:00+00:00How is AI reshaping space security, creating governance challenges, and where does international diplomacy stand today?2026-07-15T11:30:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d8a0c2ec13fe4f61Iran Update Special Report, July 15, 20262026-07-15T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 15, 20262026-07-15T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e676feda183362f8Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 20262026-07-15T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 20262026-07-15T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/bdbb1e0d549be8c5Cheap Attack, Expensive Defence: NATO 5% Pledge Following Iran and Ukraine2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00Iran and Ukraine show cheap mass defeats expensive platforms. Unless it buys deep, low-cost defence and civilian resilience, NATO can win every engagement and still lose wars.2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e5d4177e51139941NATO Planning for War with Russia – but has Moscow Left the Door Open?2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00Moscow’s strategic communications cast Russia as a backseat passenger on a road to war in Europe – but war is not inevitable.2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/945ff87d9b6fca72How NATO Became Anchored in the Black Sea2026-07-14T12:00:00+00:00NATO countries Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are upgrading their fleets and deepening trilateral cooperation in the Black Sea2026-07-14T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/cffc3b651e2700a0European Sycophancy Worked on Trump2026-07-14T12:00:00+00:00Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.2026-07-14T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/7db18117fc3c7ff5Korean Peninsula Update, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00Korean Peninsula Update, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/02467faf0f003d6bIran Update Special Report, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8f93b9151558611aRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 20262026-07-14T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8fe51205d607c055Episode 22: Delivering National Security Strategies2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00Former UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor Sir Mark Lyall Grant discusses the challenges facing delivery of Western security strategies.2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f49dd0b08a06d0e0Recording: FATF Greylisting and Financial Inclusion2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00This webinar explores the relationship between FATF 'greylisting' and financial inclusion, drawing on the Centre for Finance and Security's recent research and policy discussions.2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c127c174b2c33ce7What’s Left of NATO’s Asia Engagement?2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00Shared interests among European and Asian middle powers, navigating a turbulent Sino-American unilateralism, sustain NATO’s Asian partnerships.2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/15f6e0fa721b9aa5Thinking Beyond the Baltics for Deterring Russia2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00A rebalancing of the NATO Alliance should not involve Europe replacing US capabilities on a like-for-like basis.2026-07-13T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/04cf91fd359aa897Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 20262026-07-13T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 20262026-07-13T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/7012afe7952636c6Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 20262026-07-13T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 20262026-07-13T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/e2ce884d33bd4e48Defence Spending Must Become Defence Capacity2026-07-12T23:00:00+00:00The Defence Investment Plan shows where more money may go. The harder test is whether ministers can show how spending, assets, maintenance and liabilities become readiness.2026-07-12T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d3a2edcb05e8bef1Iran Update Special Report, July 12, 20262026-07-12T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 12, 20262026-07-12T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/7ba3d487855601e5Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 20262026-07-12T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 20262026-07-12T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/865db1130798f1f0Iran Update Special Report, July 11, 20262026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00Iran Update Special Report, July 11, 20262026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/863931f96db18bd3Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 20262026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 20262026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ed2f566b867e73e1Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 20262026-07-10T00:00:00+00:00Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 20262026-07-10T00:00:00+00:00ISWtag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/320a4d577ed85ef3Episode 124: After Ankara: First Reflections on the 2026 NATO Summit2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00The 2026 NATO Summit convened at a moment of fragile unity for the alliance. What did it deliver? What did it leave unresolved?2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/462729cf16691468The AI-Enhanced Land Carrier Battle Group: The Way Forward2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00The historical evolution of naval aviation offers useful ideas for overcoming the attritional nature of current drone and AI-dominated land warfare2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Publicationstag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/ecf0c269cef4fd3725 Years After 9/11. The Next Global Shock Could be Infinitely Worse2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00The next global shock may be the use of nuclear weapons assisted by the more casual attitudes of less responsible world leaders and the lack of popular understanding and fear.2026-07-09T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/6c7621105b70e199Egypt’s Military Landlord Economy and its Limitations2026-07-09T12:00:34+00:00The armed forces champion a form of capitalism that is generating revenue, but its reliance on rent faces diminishing returns, leaving the country with massive sunk costs and deferred returns, deepening dependency on external borrowing.2026-07-09T12:00:34+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8575c06ab6a8d19fSecuring America’s Near Abroad: Recalibrating U.S. Policy Toward Haiti2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Helping to stabilize Haiti is in the United States’ national interest and can be done by making wise use of various foreign policy tools in addition to supporting international security forces.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8f50f342f34ac84bDemystifying the Nuclear Threshold2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00The nuclear weapons threshold is increasingly important for proliferation strategy and policy. Policymakers should better understand the implications of the threshold phenomenon in the current international security environment and plausible strategies to deal with the growing challenge that it presents.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/73ac0cfb9edef5a6From Hormuz to the Maghreb: The Geopolitical Reach of a Gulf Crisis2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Morocco and Algeria, each in its own way, are having to navigate the global economic fallout of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/b4e19f7876582f60The Democratisation and Diversification of War2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Reflections on the effects of technological change and normative retrenchment on the character of contemporary war.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/60078256514d7259The Costs of Moral Pretence: How Hypocrisy Undermines International Order2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00When the United States proclaims moral superiority while acting inconsistently with those moral claims, it pays a measurable price in global cooperation and international legitimacy.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/8e8ff7def7fb35aeEast Asia’s Re-Ordering Milieu After 1945: Beyond the San Francisco Myth2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00East Asian order should not be conflated with U.S. strategy in Asia.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f3ce0ead5efed673Crime, Violence, and the Reshaping of Politics in the Americas2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Latin America is undergoing a political transformation driven as much by the perception of insecurity as by its reality.2026-07-09T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/3a03e067459d88aeThe Future of Russian Sanctions After the Hormuz Crisis2026-07-08T23:00:00+00:00US–Iran peace negotiations have stumbled, but if normalcy returns to the Strait of Hormuz, the G7 must be ready to align again on pressuring Russia.2026-07-08T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/3a6e4b33b14d28a5Threats to Maritime Trade are Spreading to the Indo-Pacific2026-07-07T23:00:00+00:00The ‘Bashi Breakout’ – China’s maritime operation east of Taiwan – is a warning that disruption to maritime trade is spreading to the Indo-Pacific.2026-07-07T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/eb9f3b15aefa91deChina’s Grey-Zone and Geoeconomic Coercion Below the Threshold of Conflict2026-07-07T23:00:00+00:00China’s ‘war by other means’ is there to see, if Europe looks past isolated incidents.2026-07-07T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d928f3bd9d5ab82bNetwork and Structural Power: The Four Trend Lines Weakening U.S. Leverage2026-07-07T12:00:00+00:00Networks—from international payments platforms to key economic sectors—underlie many aspects of U.S. power. But they are suffering under an extractive approach to foreign policy.2026-07-07T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/024d863d10aecd5fUkraine’s Logistics Targeting Raises Questions for Russia’s Rear Defences2026-07-06T23:00:00+00:00Ukraine’s use of drone warfare has serious implications for Russian lines of communication.2026-07-06T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/d8830f663cef0c55When AI Agents Attack: Autonomous Cyber Operations and Europe’s Governance Gap2026-07-06T12:00:00+00:00Autonomous AI agents are increasingly prevalent in cyberspace. The EU needs a real-time monitoring strategy, to invest in AI defenses, and to reduce its strategic dependence on U.S. frontier models.2026-07-06T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/cd063d7ca7cdbcc7Will American Power in Europe Run Out?2026-07-06T12:00:00+00:00American power is entrenched in Europe. Yet the depth of this relationship has become a source of unease in Europe and Europeans are working to reduce their exposure to the vicissitudes of U.S. politics wherever they can.2026-07-06T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/9e5ebee0c71a20fcNATO 3.0 to Emerge at Ankara Summit Amid Fragile Unity2026-07-05T23:00:00+00:00European allies and Canada will try to ease recurring tensions with President Trump by stepping up in a rebalanced alliance: NATO 3.0. But transatlantic unity remains fragile.2026-07-05T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/f627df14fd4d1c92Reforming European Security: A Turkish Perspective2026-07-05T12:00:00+00:00The Alliance is being pulled toward a NATO 3.0 model by two structural drivers: the changing character of warfare, made visible by the war in Ukraine, and the redistribution of transatlantic burden-sharing as the United States gives greater priority to homeland security and the Indo-Pacific.2026-07-05T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/1a52b2fc2c01ae9dRamzan Kadyrov: The Kremlin’s Messenger to the Islamic World2026-07-02T23:00:00+00:00The reported failing health of Ramzan Kadyrov leaves a strategic communications gap for a Kremlin speaking to the Islamic world.2026-07-02T23:00:00+00:00RUSI Commentarytag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/c26330b7fd7f25e9Nuclear Weapons and the Future of American Power2026-07-02T12:00:00+00:00It seems likely that, no matter what, the power of the U.S. nuclear arsenal will face erosion, not least in the credibility of its commitments to defend allies and the political durability of those alliances.2026-07-02T12:00:00+00:00Carnegie Endowmenttag:trvny.github.io,2024:feedseek/geopolitics/4c9eee951368e24dThreading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China2026-07-02T11:30:00+00:00This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority. 2026-07-02T11:30:00+00:00Carnegie Endowment